“The inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI Index will profoundly impact the global economic landscape.”
The size and scale of China’s domestic marketplace has become one the nation’s greatest economic achievements. From the middle-class explosion to the sweeping impact of digital transformation throughout its population and industries, China—and the global economy—are entering a new era of investment opportunities. There is money to be made by investing in China but opening up the country’s heavily regulated domestic assets to foreign investors entails a learning curve on both sides.
Perspective: China vs. Growth Economies
The Mercer report The Inclusion of China A-Shares in MSCI Indices: Implications for Asset Managers and Investors, explains why opening China’s domestic market to the global economy has created a wave of excitement throughout the international investment community and marketplace. This enthusiasm is being carefully managed by the measured strategy China and the MSCI are implementing while forging a framework for future growth. The initial phase only weighted 226 stocks at a mere 5 percent of their market cap, demonstrating that this new era will be defined by an incremental, long-term mindset. This cautious approach may be welcome news to competing growth economies in the region.
Despite the conservative rollout of Chinese A-shares (domestic assets) to the international marketplace, inclusion in the MSCI Index will profoundly impact the global economic landscape, especially with regard to the influence of emerging economies. Take, for instance, what the MSCI Index will look like with the inclusion of 5 percent of Chinese A-shares, and then at 100 percent inclusion. Growth economies such as India, Taiwan and South Korea may be negatively impacted by the inclusion of domestic China in global indexes, especially if investors shift their focus from growth markets to new opportunities in Chinese A-shares.
Change is inherently fraught with breakthroughs, obstacles and the anxiety of the unknown. Though no one can 100 percent accurately predict the future, let’s examine the opportunities and challenges of China’s new status in the global economy, and what it means to equity investors.
Opportunities from Inclusion in MSCI:
1. Market Size: The Chinese domestic market is large, comprising more than 3,000 stocks, and is the most liquid in the world. Since the beginning of 2017, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have experienced higher aggregate daily trading volume than the New York and NASDAQ Stock Exchanges combined.
2. Diversity: The Chinese domestic market entails a cross-section of companies that represent a broad number of industries, and it is much more diversified at the sector level than the China shares listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (which is highly concentrated in IT and financials).
3. Uniqueness: Historically, China’s A-share market has displayed a low correlation with other equity markets, marking an era of new and unexplored opportunities to create value.
4. Limited Foreign Ownership: With domestic Chinese retail investors comprising more than 75 percent of the free-float market cap—the number of outstanding shares available to the general public—there is a lack of informed institutional owners in the market. The unprecedented nature of the situation can create inefficiencies, but also yield an environment that can be conducive to investors willing to explore new opportunities.
Challenges from Inclusion in MSCI:
1. Volatility: Although the market is large and liquid, it is volatile and has experienced periods when liquidity has fallen dramatically in short periods of time. However, China has taken steps to mitigate volatility, including the formation of a “national team” to help stabilize the market by purchasing A-shares in times of market stress.
2. Concentration: There is concern regarding the composition of benchmarks when China A-shares are included in indices at their full weight. Global emerging market benchmarks are relatively diversified at present, but they will become increasingly dominated by China following the full inclusion of the China A-share market. However, to address this issue, many innovative organizations are recruiting analysts and portfolio managers experienced in the region—or are nurturing in-house/hybrid solutions to explore standalone investments and other strategies.
3. Global Uncertainty: Trade tensions between the US and China, and other geopolitical concerns have made some investors skittish about opportunities in China’s domestic marketplace. As markets seek stability over chaos, an unknown future and emerging investment realities and mechanisms will have some organizations choosing to stay on the sidelines. This, however, means more potential opportunities for investors with the portfolios and risk tolerance to explore new opportunities.
To learn more about how the inclusion of China’s A-shares in MSCI Indices will impact the global marketplace and create new investment opportunities for your organization, visit Mercer Wealth and Investments (or Mercer Wealth and Investments – China).